Monitoring and modeling for investigating driver/pressure–state/impact relationships in coastal ecosystems: Examples from the Lagoon of Venice

In this paper, we show how the integration of monitoring data and mathematical model can generate valuable information by using a few examples taken from a well studied but complex ecosystem, namely the Lagoon of Venice. We will focus on three key issues, which are of concern also for many other coastal ecosystems, namely: (1) Nitrogen and Phosphorus annual budgets; (2) estimation of Net Ecosystem Metabolism and early warnings for anoxic events; (3) assessment of ecosystem status. The results highlight the importance of framing monitoring activities within the “DPSIR” conceptual model, thus going far beyond the monitoring of major biogeochemical variables and including: (1) the estimation of the fluxes of the main constituents at the boundaries; (2) the use of appropriate mathematical models. These tools can provide quantitative links among Pressures and State/Impacts, thus enabling decision makers and stakeholders to evaluate the effects of alternative management scenarios.

► Evidences for supporting a DPSIR approach to the monitoring of coastal areas are provided. ► The role of modeling as a building block of a monitoring system is exemplified. ► Integrated monitoring systems include monitoring of fluxes at the waterbody boundaries. ► Integrated monitoring systems require a non fragmented governance structure. ► Models provide indicators and suggest how an ecosystem react to policy scenarios.