Patterns of interannual climate variability in large marine ecosystems

The purpose of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of the Brazilian and western African Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) to local and remote forcing, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime shift. The analyses are based on the total and partial correlation between climate indices (Niño3, tropical South Atlantic (TSA), tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Antarctic oscillation (AAO) and oceanic and atmospheric variables (sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress, Ekman transport, sea level pressure and outgoing longwave radiation). Differences in the correlation fields between the cold and warm PDO indicate that this mode exerts a significant impact on the thermodynamic balance of the ocean-atmosphere system on the South Atlantic ocean, mainly in the South Brazil and Benguela LMEs. The PDO regime shift also resulted in an increase in the spatial variability of SST and wind stress anomalies, mainly along the western African LMEs. Another important finding is the strong AAO influence on the SST anomalies (SSTA) in the South Brazil LME. It is also striking that TSA modulates the relation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SSTA, by reducing the influence of ENSO on SSTA during the warm PDO period in the North and East Brazil LMEs and in the Guinea Current LME. The relation between AAO and SSTA on the tropical area is also influenced by the TSA. The results shown here give a clear indication that future ecosystem-based management actions aimed at the conservation of marine resources under climate change need to consider the high complexity of basin-scale interactions between local and remote climate forcings, including their effects on the ocean-atmosphere system of the South Atlantic ocean.