Response of yellowtail, Seriola quinqueradiata, a key large predatory fish in the Japan Sea, to sea water temperature over the last century and potential effects of global warming

We examined the long-term variability in the abundance of yellowtail Seriola quinqueradiata and its relationship with sea water temperature in the Japan Sea, which is one of the most rapidly warming large marine ecosystems in the world ocean. The total catch of yellowtail has ranged from 14,000 to 77,000 t with an increasing trend over the last century. Decadal-scale variability was found for yellowtail with significant shifts occurring around 1911, 1931, 1950, 1973, 1989 and 2000, which was in accordance with sea surface temperatures (SST). In particular, there was close correspondence between water temperature and catch in the Japan Sea; significant and positive correlations between SSTs and catch indicated increasing water temperature in the Tsushima Warm Current region has led to positive effects on migration and recruitment of yellowtail. SST mapping of optimum water temperature for yellowtail habitat indicated a northward extension in distribution and overwintering areas of yellowtail in the Japan Sea during the warm 1990s, suggested that the migration pattern, distribution and overwintering area are largely dictated by SST. Hence, potential impacts of global warming on migration, distribution and fisheries grounds of yellowtail in the Japan Sea were estimated based on the prediction of the IPCC A1B scenario which indicated northward extension in distribution and overwintering region with global warming and will have large impacts on the fisheries for yellowtail.

► We analyzed decadal variability of yellowtail in the Japan Sea. ► Response of yellowtail to water temperature during last century was examined. ► Increase in water temperature had positive effect on yellowtail catch in the Japan Sea. ► Global warming results in northward extension in distribution and over-wintering areas. ► Migration pattern and fishery structure in the Japan Sea will change with warming.