North Sea sensitivity to atmospheric forcing

The sensitivity of North Sea physics and phytoplankton production to atmospheric forcing has been studied by performing perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields through a number of model simulations. The perturbations are kept in the range of expected climate change, to give a first indication of the climate change impacts on regional systems. The model simulations suggest that an increase in air temperature and short wave radiation will increase sea surface temperature, while an increase in wind will decrease it. Increased wind will increase the transports into the North Sea, while the other atmospheric forcings only have a small impact on that. Combining the perturbations indicates a smaller stratified area and a deeper mixed layer. Primary production is expected to increase, with an increase in wind speed having the largest impact.

Research Highlights►Sensitivity of North Sea physics and lower trophic levels to atmospheric forcing. ►Number of simulations where permutations of one by one forcing variable were done. ►Permutations within expected climate change to give a first indication of the climate change impacts on regional systems. ►Results compared to natural variability of today's climate.