Applied coastal biogeochemical modelling to quantify the environmental impact of fish farm nutrients and inform managers

A 3D biogeochemical model is validated against regional observations and used to quantify the fluxes and transformations of natural and anthropogenic nutrients in an oligotrophic marine channel and micro-tidal estuary in southern Tasmania. The model reproduces the seasonal cycle of pelagic phytoplankton biomass and dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations observed in 2002 and is not excessively sensitive to the parameterization of the key biogeochemical processes of phytoplankton light absorption, zooplankton grazing or denitrification. Simulations indicate that in 2002, 66% of total nitrogen influx to the region was supplied from marine sources, 20% from rivers and 14% from salmon farms operating in the region. Fish farm loads of labile dissolved and particulate nitrogen have greatest impact on water quality in summer and autumn when they supply labile nutrient to seasonally depleted surface waters and fuel additional phytoplankton growth. Bays in the northern part of the region are more vulnerable to farm nutrient enrichment due, in part, to the residual northward circulation. It is estimated that in 2002 12% of the region had changed from oligotrophic to mesotrophic status due to salmon farm nutrient enrichment. Analysis of a future scenario simulation with 3 fold increase in farm loads quantified the spatial and temporal impact of farms on water quality and indicated that mesotrophic conditions could extend to 54% of the region. Statistical summaries and visualisation methods were used to communicate model results to stakeholders. Management action has been taken to limit future fish farm loads into the region and implement an environmental monitoring program.