Modelling Pseudo-nitzschia events off southwest Ireland

•The onset and duration of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms can be modelled with a ZINB model.•Wind forcing and temperature influence Pseudo-nitzschia population dynamics in Irish waters.•Results suggest that upwelling conditions are closely linked to the occurrence of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms.

Toxic and non-toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms are common in coastal waters worldwide including Ireland. Off southwest Ireland, the timing of blooms on a weekly scale is highly variable, while the seasonal pattern is more regular with a bimodal distribution. Upwelling conditions are closely linked to Pseudo-nitzschia blooms. The work presented here describes a mathematical model, a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model, employed to forecast the onset, abundance and duration of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the bays of southwest Ireland. Variables used in the model included field observations of Pseudo-nitzschia, sea surface temperature and wind. The estimated model reveals that, on average, cell levels on a given day depend on sea surface temperature, the value of a wind index on the previous day and the number of Pseudo-nitzschia in the water the previous week. The model forecast performed well for the onset and duration of blooms. However, the magnitude of blooms was sometimes underestimated by the model.