Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy

In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine (Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine (Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic forcing, owing to their inherent biological traits such as mode, frequency and intensity of reproduction, early life style, age of maturity and longevity. On the other hand, responses of different stocks within a species to climatic regime shifts were unique to each local region, because large-scale climatic forcings are modulated by local physical, chemical and biological processes. The observed response time or absence of response in recruitment-related fish productivity to climatic regime shifts may be influenced by (1) local environmental conditions (immediate, with a delay or no effects), (2) phenological shifts in zooplankton life-history (immediate or with a delay), and (3) stochastic episodic events in both top-down and bottom-up processes (immediate, with a delay or no effects).