Differentiating between climate effects and forest growth dynamics effects on decreasing groundwater recharge in a lowland region in Northeast Germany

SummaryDeclining groundwater levels in some forested regions in Northeast Germany indicate a reduction in groundwater recharge. Various interlinked aspects, such as changes in climate conditions and changes in forest structure, have been considered as the main factors affecting the regional level of groundwater recharge.For this study, the water balance model WaSiM-ETH was used to calculate groundwater recharge in a 104 km2 area between 1958 and 2007. Climate impact analysis was driven by observed data from neighbouring meteorological stations. Changes in forest stands were reconstructed from the current status and literature studies.The model-based analysis showed that the average groundwater recharge under forest areas decreased from 1958 to 2007, with a trend of 2.3 mm/yr2. The most important effect was changing climatic boundary conditions, which made up 53% of the decrease. Declining precipitation is identified as the main factor. Changes in tree age distribution caused 18% of the decrease, and the change of ground vegetation under pines (Pinus sylvestris) accounts for 29%.In respect of the complexity and the interconnectivity of the processes of groundwater recharge, the necessity of using process-oriented distributed models such as WaSiM-ETH is discussed.We conclude that changes in forest stands affecting groundwater recharge could play a significant role in the water balance, especially in regions with a priori low total runoff, this has up to now often remained unquantified.

► Causes for reduced groundwater recharge in a forested area are analysed. ► Annual groundwater recharge decreased by 2.3 mm per year over 50 years. ► Climate impact makes up 52% of the decrease. ► Changes in the tree age distribution reduce groundwater recharge by 18%. ► Contribution of changes in ground vegetation is 29%.