Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems

SummaryAn increasing number of publications show that ensemble hydrological forecasts exhibit good performance when compared to observed streamflow. Many studies also conclude that ensemble forecasts lead to a better performance than deterministic ones. This investigation takes one step further by not only comparing ensemble and deterministic forecasts to observed values, but by employing the forecasts in a stochastic decision-making assistance tool for hydroelectricity production, during a flood event on the Gatineau River in Canada. This allows the comparison between different types of forecasts according to their value in terms of energy, spillage and storage in a reservoir. The motivation for this is to adopt the point of view of an end-user, here a hydroelectricity production society. We show that ensemble forecasts exhibit excellent performances when compared to observations and are also satisfying when involved in operation management for electricity production. Further improvement in terms of productivity can be reached through the use of a simple post-processing method.

► Evaluation of forecasting systems from an operational point of view. ► Comparison of probabilistic and deterministic hydrological forecasts. ► Improvement of forecasts through the use of a simple post-processing method. ► Use of ensemble streamflow forecasts in a stochastic decision-making process. ► Improved electricity production and reduction of spillage through the use of ensemble streamflow forecasts.