Uncertainty of hydrological modelling in climate change impact studies in a Canadian, snow-dominated river basin

SummaryThis paper investigates the effects of model structure and parameter equifinality on the uncertainty related to hydrological modelling in climate change impact studies. The study is conducted on a snow-dominated watershed located in the southern part of the province of Quebec (Canada). Hydrological model structure uncertainty is examined through the use of two very different simulation tools, one lumped conceptual model and one spatially-distributed physically-based model. Parameter equifinality is examined by performing multiple automatic calibrations with both hydrological models. The analysis is first carried out under recent past climate and then under modified climate conditions following two contrasted projections that are analysed separately. The delta change approach is used to build the two climate projections. Overall, this study reveals that the impact of hydrological model structure uncertainty is more significant than the effect of parameter uncertainty, under recent past climate as well as future climate conditions. Ultimately, the use of hydrological models with different levels of complexity should be considered as part of the global uncertainty related to hydrological model structure.

► Parameter and structure uncertainty of hydrology models in climate change studies. ► Two different models: lumped conceptual and spatially-distributed physically-based. ► Two sets of climate conditions: recent past and modified (horizon 2060). ► Structure uncertainty is more significant than parameter uncertainty (both climates).