Modeling snowmelt-runoff under climate scenarios in the Hunza River basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan

SummaryA major proportion of flow in the Indus River is contributed by its snow and glacier-fed river catchments situated in the Karakoram Range. It is therefore essential to estimate the snowmelt runoff from these catchments (with no or scarce precipitation records) for water resources management. The snowmelt runoff model (SRM) integrated with MODIS remote-sensing snow cover products was selected to simulate the daily discharges and to study the climate change impact on these discharges in the Hunza River basin (the snow- and glacier-fed sub-catchment of the Indus River). The results obtained suggest that the SRM can be used efficiently in the snow- and glacier-fed sub-catchments of the Upper Indus River Basin (UIB). The application of the SRM under future climate (mean temperature, precipitation and snow cover) change scenarios indicates a doubling of summer runoff until the middle of this century. This analysis suggests that new reservoirs will be necessary for summer flow storage to meet with the needs of irrigation supply, increasing power generation demand, flood control and water supply.

► Snowmelt runoff is modeled in the snow and glacier-fed Hunza River catchment. ► Snowmelt runoff model (SRM) integrated with MOD10A2 snow product is used. ► SRM has efficiently simulated the discharge in the Hunza River basin. ► Future climate change scenarios indicate a doubling of summer runoff until 2075.