Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
4609806 Journal of Differential Equations 2015 40 Pages PDF
Abstract

In this paper, we extend a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) one through introducing random fluctuations. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, by using the Markov semigroups theory, we prove that the reproduction number R0S can be used to govern the stochastic dynamics of SDE model. If R0S<1, under mild extra conditions, the SDE system has a disease-free absorbing set which means the extinction of disease with probability one. If R0S>1, under mild extra conditions, it has an endemic stationary distribution which leads to the stochastical persistence of the disease. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics.

Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering Mathematics Analysis
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