Simulation of Community Heating Parameters Based on Energy Equilibrium Principle

The principle of the energy equilibrium is applied to develop the relationship between heat loss and supply, indoor and outdoor temperature, supply and return water temperature of heating system for a building. A numerical simulation model of supply-return water temperature is deduced. Based on the hourly air temperatures for next 24 hours of Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC) NWP and observed indoor temperature from Haiyuan Community in February 2008, a simulation experiment of hourly prediction for next 24-hours was conducted. The experiments show that the mean square root error between simulated indoor temperature and required temperature (20°C) is 0.26°C comparing with the actual error of operation in Beijing Haiyuan Community 1.69°C. This means the prediction model of supply-return water temperature has a good quality. Comparing with the statistical or empirical method in the past, it is the first time in China to utilize dynamic method to forecast heating parameters which could makes refined heating weather service possible.