Cognitions and questions regarding crustal deformation and location forecasts of strong earthquakes

Using Global Positioning System(GPS) data to analyze the earthquake preparation characteristics of the Kunlun Ms8.1 and the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes, we review the main research developments of earthquake forecasting and the mechanisms of earthquake preparation using crustal deformation data from recent periods, and discuss the similarities and differences in the scientific approaches adopted by the Chinese and foreign scholars. We then analyze the deformation characteristics of earthquake preparation, with respect to slip and dip-slip faults. Our results show that, in order to understand the relationship between crustal deformation and earthquake preparation, research focus should be expanded from fault-scale to larger scale regions. Furthermore, the dynamic deformation characteristics associated with earthquake preparation must be considered as a multi-scale, spatial-temporal process, in order to obtain the necessary criteria for strong earthquake forecasts.