Analysis of landslide inventories for accurate prediction of debris-flow source areas

For the generation of susceptibility maps on medium scales (1:25,000 to 1:50,000) using statistical techniques, a reliable landslide inventory is needed, together with factor maps used as inputs. This paper compares landslide susceptibility maps obtained with the same methodology but using different landslide inventories: the official Italian landslide inventory GeoIFFI for the Lombardy Region and a recently mapped inventory (DF2001). The analysis included four main steps: (i) preparation of debris flow inventories using both random and spatial partitions and factor maps as explanatory variables; (ii) calculation of accountability and reliability indices for a preliminary susceptibility analysis and selection of an appropriate combination of the factor maps for detailed analysis; (iii) evaluation and validation of the obtained susceptibility maps; and (iv) comparison of the results and selection of the final map. The study area is located in the Valtellina Valley in the Central Italian Alps. The analysis identified highly susceptible areas of shallow landslides that may generate debris flows. It was demonstrated that more precisely delimited source areas for landslide-induced debris flows produce better susceptibility maps. However, the improvement of these maps was relatively limited when the inventories were randomly subdivided. Higher improvements were observed after the subdivision of the inventories into three geographical parts with different geomorphological characteristics. Although the modelling showed very similar results if evaluation is made using standard techniques, the spatial pattern of the susceptibility maps was highly variable and dependent on the combination of the factor maps used.