Magnitude production imbalances and the present seismogenicity state of the San Andreas Fault system

► There is strong evidence that the output of large magnitude earthquakes within a fault system is a non-random phenomenon. ► In a given fault zone, large earthquakes follow marked changes in piecewise gradient time series of smaller earthquakes. ► The San Andreas Fault System, within 21°N-40.2°N and 105°W-125°W, is poised to release an earthquake of magnitude >7.5. ► Since 1973, no earthquake of magnitude >7.5 is in the database, so there are no clear clues on the timeframe for release. ► For events in the 7.1-7.5 magnitude range clear symptoms were seen for periods lasting mere weeks to two years.