Nonparametric seismic hazard estimation: A spatio-temporal application to the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula

Nonparametric techniques are frequently used in seismology studies to fit statistical models to earthquake data, as an alternative to classical parametric methods. In this paper, we apply nonparametric techniques to study some area-characteristic seismic hazard parameters (such as the mean return period or the expected number of earthquakes) in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, using a complete data catalog. Moreover, bootstrap techniques are used to develop simultaneous confidence bands for these functions. The previous nonparametric approaches are adapted to a spatial framework, obtaining maps of the probabilities of exceedance of the annual maximum magnitude in the zone of study. This procedure suitably describes the features of the area studied, being consistent with previous geological researches.

Research Highlights► Nonparametric seismic hazard estimation. ► Simultaneous bootstrap con.dence bands. ► Spatial distribution of seismic hazard. ► Analysis of the seismic hazard of the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula.