Verification of our previous definition of preferred earthquake nucleation areas in Kanto-Tokai, Japan

We have proposed that points of future initiation of rupture may be mapped, based on minima in local recurrence times, which are equivalent to local maxima in the probability for main shocks to occur. These minima are often controlled by anomalously low b-values (logN = a − bM). Of the Kanto-Tokai area, approximately 12% showed anomalously short recurrence times and was proposed as asperities, based on seismicity up to 1999. During the period 1999–2003.5, about 75% of the earthquakes with M ≥ 3.5 fell into the asperities, earlier defined (for example 19 out of 23 M ≥ 3.8 events). The probability for this to occur by chance is approximately 2 10− 14. This supports our idea that the most likely volumes to produce main shocks may be mapped by minima in local recurrence times.