New models for probability of liquefaction using standard penetration tests based on an updated database of case histories

This paper develops and compares various models for probability of liquefaction using standard penetration tests. These probabilistic models are developed using the most recently updated database of liquefaction case histories by Idriss and Boulanger. Rigorous theories, including the principles of Maximum Likelihood and the Information Theory, are employed in the model development. The developed probabilistic models are compared with existing models. The results show superior capability of the developed models. Furthermore, application of the developed models is presented with provisions for consideration of input parameter uncertainty. Examples are presented to demonstrate the developed models.

► Extensive series of the maximum likelihood analysis of an updated database. ► Best models are selected based on Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) scores. ► Variation of the computed liquefaction probability is fully assessed. ► Proposed model is developed based on rigorous mathematical theories. ► Examples showing that the developed model is accurate and easy to use.