Delimitation of ground failure zones due to land subsidence using gravity data and finite element modeling in the Querétaro valley, México

Sedimentary basins of arid and semiarid zones are often subject to regimes of intense ground-water withdrawal as it is normally the only source of water for development of communities. An associated phenomenon is land subsidence, which can develop to ground failures, and consequently, damage to infrastructure. Aquifer deformation can be analyzed using a stress–strain or a flux–force approach depending on the aquifer material (compact or loose) and on whether the water withdrawal forms a predominant flow direction toward a cone of depression. Geometry of the aquifer system also plays an important role as uneven thickness induces differential compaction and hence, tensional and shear stresses on the ground mass. In this work we present a stress–strain approach to analyze subsidence for an unconfined aquifer of varying thickness; this is done in two steps, namely when the aquifer is in equilibrium, and when it is totally depleted. Using this scheme in a region where ground failure is evident, a portion of the aquifer system of the Querétaro valley is analyzed. The geometry of the hydrologic basement is first modeled using gravity measurements properly correlated with wells and field data. Then a stress analysis is implemented using the finite element method in order to identify probable zones of ground weakness, which are calibrated with known ground failures. The results indicate that both, tensional and shear stress are present, which induce ground failure in the form of surface faults.