Probabilistic life cycle costing of existing buildings retrofit interventions towards nZE target: Methodology and application example

In order to overcome this limit, this work suggests a probabilistic LCC based on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis via Monte Carlo methods and illustrates it through a building case study under several retrofit scenarios sighting the target nZE. The methodology allows investigating the economic effectiveness of alternative measures, giving insight into possible ranges of the economic indicator related to a specific design option. The analysis is focused on a micro-economic dimension and based on the availability and reliability of inputs data and on their proper characterization with Probability Density Functions. Variance-based methods for sensitivity analysis are employed to establish the most influential parameters on output uncertainty. The paper demonstrates the potentials of a probabilistic LCC in providing a more realistic decision support about investments for energy efficient projects.