Probabilistic prediction of the failure mode of the Ruytenschildt Bridge

The method that is derived here is applied to the Ruytenschildt Bridge. This case study is a reinforced concrete solid slab bridges that was tested to failure in two spans during the summer of 2014. The relative probability of failure in shear of the bridge was determined. The predictions indicated a smaller probability of a shear failure than of a bending moment failure. In the first tested span, failure was not reached, but indications of flexural distress were observed. In the second span, a flexural failure was achieved, in line with the probabilistic predictions. The presented method can be used in the assessment of existing bridges to determine which failure mode is most probable, taking into account the variability of materials and capacity models.