Forecasting passenger travel demand for air and high-speed rail integration service: A case study of Beijing-Guangzhou corridor, China

This paper investigates the mode choice behavior of inter-city passengers among air transport, high-speed rail (HSR), and air and high-speed rail (AH) integration services. Stated preference survey has been conducted for four typical city pairs that are located in the Beijing-Guangzhou corridor, China. Modal split models are proposed and calibrated based on the collected survey data. The proposed models are used to identify the key factors affecting passengers' mode choices and to estimate the modal split of passenger travel demand for some inter-city transportation markets of China. Sensitivity analyses are also performed to reveal the market potential of the AH integration service in China. It has been found: (i) when the inter-city travel distance exceeds a threshold, passengers become less sensitive to the connection time of the AH service, (ii) the most competitive haul distance for the AH service is between 1200 km and 1600 km, and (iii) the en route travel time is the most important factor affecting the market share of the AH service.