First a job, then a child? Subgroup variation in women's employment-fertility link

Both macro and micro level research exhibits signs of a turnaround in the relation between female labour force participation and fertility. However, it can be expected that this association varies considerably between population subgroups. Drawing on 2001 Belgian census data combined with birth registers for first, second and third births for the period 2002-2005, we assess within-state differences in the female employment-fertility link by education and ethnic origin. In line with the theory of the value of children, our results indicate that groups with limited labour market opportunities are more likely to have a child in response to unemployment or inactivity. Women with low education or a migrant background are more likely to adopt childbearing strategies as an alternative to labour market participation, whereas for Belgian women or highly educated women labour market participation is more positively related to childbearing.