Mexican-origin adolescents' educational expectation trajectories: Intersection of nativity, sex, and socioeconomic status

•Mexican-origin early adolescents expected to complete post-bachelor's degrees.•However, expectations declined in middle adolescence and improved in late adolescence.•This curvilinear pattern was more pronounced for immigrant adolescents, compared to U.S.-born adolescents.•Boys and girls did not differ in their initial levels of expectations but differed in their trajectories.•Nativity further moderated the sex differences in adolescents' trajectories.

Expectancy value theory and a cultural-ecological framework are integrated in this study to examine the trajectories of 246 Mexican-origin adolescents' (Mage = 12.52, SDage = 0.58; 51% girls, 62% U.S.-born) educational expectations across eight years. Findings from a multilevel growth model revealed that early adolescents expected to complete a post-bachelor's degree, but expectations declined in middle adolescence and improved in late adolescence. This pattern was more pronounced for immigrant, compared to U.S-born, adolescents. Higher socioeconomic status was associated with higher expectations. Boys and girls differed in their trajectories, such that boys showed a curvilinear trajectory and girls showed a stable trajectory. Nativity moderated these sex differences. Immigrant boys showed curvilinear trajectories that dipped in middle adolescence and immigrant girls showed a declining trajectory. In contrast, U.S.-born boys and girls showed linear and stable trajectories. The discussion addresses suggestions for targeted interventions with at-risk subgroups during a sensitive period in adolescence.