A subsystem based probabilistic approach for the assessment of transmission capital project reliability impacts

An efficient probabilistic approach for the assessment of transmission capital project impact is presented. The approach employs a subsystem based technique and takes advantage of the calculation accuracy of widely used commercial program for power flow analysis and accounts for equipment failure probability, variation in bus load, outage consequences and other system specific characteristics such as remedial action plan, specific operating procedures, tapped line and common mode failures. The approach also uses efficient computing techniques such as the breadth-first search algorithm and the recursive invocation method to facilitate the evaluation process. The proposed method is illustrated by evaluating and comparing several actual utility projects. The approach proposed in this paper will facilitate more realistic evaluation of large practical power systems using probabilistic methods.