Analysis of the influencing factors of external wall ceramic claddings' service life using regression techniques

•In this study, various service life prediction models are proposed.•Simple and multiple regression analysis, both linear and nonlinear, are used.•A sample of 96 ceramic claddings of residential buildings in Brasília is analysed.•Visual inspections and complementary diagnosis techniques are performed.•The main factors that influence the durability of ceramic claddings are identified.

Buildings' façades play an important role in the protection of buildings and, therefore, their envelope system must comply with its function, fulfilling the performance requirements and withstanding the external environmental agents during the buildings' life cycle. Although the degradation of buildings is a natural process, there are various factors that influence their durability. The assessment of the buildings' durability and service life is a research field that brings together several knowledge areas, e.g. construction technology, building physics and meteorology. This paper intends to identify the main factors that influence the durability of adhesive ceramic external wall claddings, developing models to predict their service life that involve these variables. The service life prediction models proposed in this study are defined based on simple and multiple regression analysis, both linear and nonlinear. The proposed models are defined based on the in situ evaluation of the degradation condition of 96 ceramic claddings of residential buildings in Brasília. The methodology led to coherent results and its applicability and adequacy to predict the service life of ceramic claddings in Brasília is demonstrated. The knowledge regarding the influence of the façades' characteristics on their durability is extremely useful to designers, in order to improve the selection of a given cladding for a specific situation, and to managers and stakeholders, allowing the optimization of maintenance policies and thus increasing the sustainability of the solutions adopted during the buildings' life cycle.