Condition-based maintenance for complex systems based on current component status and Bayesian updating of component reliability

The cost-optimal moment of replacement for the system is obtained by minimizing the expected cost rate per unit of time. The unit cost rate is recalculated when components fail or at the end of every (very short) fixed inter-evaluation interval, leading to a dynamic maintenance policy, since the ageing of components and possible failures will change the cost-optimal moment of replacement in the course of time. Via numerical experiments, some insight into the performance of the policy is given.