An Effect Evaluation of the Predictive Open Communities Based on Simulation Techniques - Taking the Traffic Congestion in Wuhan as an Example

Considering the situation of traffic congestion and degeneration of living environment of communities brought about by sprawl of urban diseases, this context extracts statistics from a residential land (3.26km2) in Wuhan using spatial data analysis software (Arc GIS), combined with on-site-collected resident trips and the matrix (OD) of traffic capacity with the assistance of traffic simulation software (Trans CAD), to predict and analyze the equilibrium between traffic generation and attraction, so as to build up the matrix of trip volume of the objective year (2020) and acquire traffic assigning parameter. Development intensity and degree of units in communities and other factors are also included to conduct the visual assessment. The conclusion can be drawn as the followings: 1) hour spent in open communities is less and waiting line is shorter than that in gated communities, so that the cost will be reduced. 2) In open communities the V/C (degree of saturation of road) ≤1.2 while in gated communities the result is ≤1.8, which indicate the rise of road capacity and level of service, as well as the relief of traffic congestion. 3) There is a connection between the planning area and spatial units in communities. Adjacent units are positive correlated: communities near the junction in the southeast are highly aggregated and trip volume of residents is large while communities near the junction in the northwest relatively loosely gathered and trip volume of residents is smaller, which means choosing roads in the northwest during peaks in the morning and evening is a feasible way to avoid traffic congestion. Aggregation is not that obvious communities in the middle than the others'. The results demonstrate the practicability and significance of assessment methods of this essay.