Alcohol expectancies longitudinally predict drinking and the alcohol myopia effects of relief, self-inflation, and excess

•General alcohol expectancy longitudinally predicted alcohol use and all 3 myopic effects.•Positive expectancy predicted alcohol use, and myopic relief, self-inflation, and excess.•Negative expectancy predicted only myopic excess but not use or other myopic effects.•Among the 7 expectancies, 2 predicted relief, 1 predicted self-inflation, and 1 predicted excess.•Alcohol myopic experiences are a function of self-fulfilling alcohol prophecies and drinking levels.

IntroductionAlcohol myopia theory posits that alcohol consumption attenuates information processing capacity, and that expectancy beliefs together with intake level are responsible for experiences in myopic effects (relief, self-inflation, and excess).MethodsAdults (N = 413) averaging 36.39 (SD = 13.02) years of age completed the Comprehensive Effects of Alcohol questionnaire at baseline, followed by alcohol use measures (frequency and quantity) and the Alcohol Myopia Scale one month later. Three structural equation models based on differing construct manifestations of alcohol expectancies served to longitudinally forecast alcohol use and myopia.ResultsIn Model 1, overall expectancy predicted greater alcohol use and higher levels of all three myopic effects. In Model 2, specifying separate positive and negative expectancy factors, positive but not negative expectancy predicted greater use. Furthermore, positive expectancy and use explained higher myopic relief and higher self-inflation, whereas positive expectancy, negative expectancy, and use explained higher myopic excess. In Model 3, the seven specific expectancy subscales (sociability, tension reduction, liquid courage, sexuality, cognitive and behavioral impairment, risk and aggression, and self-perception) were simultaneously specified as predictors. Tension reduction expectancy, sexuality expectancy, and use contributed to higher myopic relief; sexuality expectancy and use explained higher myopic self-inflation; and risk and aggression expectancy and use accounted for higher myopic excess. Across all three predictive models, the total variance explained ranged from 12 to 19% for alcohol use, 50 to 51% for relief, 29 to 34% for self-inflation, and 32 to 35% for excess.ConclusionsFindings support that the type of alcohol myopia experienced is a concurrent function of self-fulfilling alcohol prophecies and drinking levels. The interpreted measurement manifestation of expectancy yielded different prevention implications.