Circular migration, or permanent stay? Evidence from China's rural-urban migration

Although there is a rich literature on internal temporary migration in China, few existing studies deal with the permanent migration decision of China's rural labor. This paper will fill this gap and deal with the permanent migration choice made by rural migrants with the China General Social Survey (CGSS) data. Our results show that compared with their circular counterparts, permanent migrants tend to stay within the home provinces and are more likely to have stable jobs and earn high incomes and thus are more adapted to urban lives. We also find that more educated and more experienced migrants tend to be permanent urban residents, while the relationship of age and the probability of permanent migration is inverse U-shaped. Due to the restrictions of the current hukou system and the lack of rural land rental market, those people with more children and more land at home are more likely to migrate circularly rather than permanently.

Research Highlights► It's the first to examine the permanent migration choice by China's rural migrants. ► We employ a unique nationally representative dataset. ► Our findings are robust to different definitions of “permanent migrant". ► Our findings provide a new insight and have important policy implications.