Impact of mega trade deals on China: A computational general equilibrium analysis

This paper explores the potential impacts on both China and other major countries of possible mega trade deals. We use a 13-country computational general equilibrium model with trade costs to investigate both tariff and non-tariff reduction effects. Simulation results reveal that China-Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will yield the highest welfare outcomes for China. For the US, China-TPP FTA will generate the highest welfare outcome. For the European Union, all China involved mega deals have negative impacts except China-US FTA. For Japan, RCEP will generate the highest welfare outcome. For both Korea and India, RCEP will generate the highest welfare outcome.