Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5054080 | Economic Modelling | 2015 | 7 Pages |
Abstract
In this article, we assess the relative performance of factor models to forecast GDP growth in Portugal. A large dataset is compiled for the Portuguese economy and its usefulness for nowcasting and short-term forecasting is investigated. Since, in practice, one has to cope with different publication lags and unbalanced data, we also address the pseudo real-time performance of such models. Furthermore, by considering a relatively long out-of-sample period, we are able to evaluate the behavior of the different models over the pre-crisis period and during the latest economic and financial crisis. As Portugal was one of the hardest hit economies, it is a particularly insightful case to assess the relative performance of factor models during a period of economic stress.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Economics and Econometrics
Authors
Francisco Dias, Maximiano Pinheiro, António Rua,