Ex-ante evaluation of a targeted job program: Hypothetical integration in a social accounting matrix of South Africa

To analyze policy impacts of a targeted employment program calls for a new approach of estimation. This study proposes a simple modification to a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in order to analyze the multiplier effects of a new sector. A different input composition, or technology, of the sector with targeted job provision makes a conventional analysis of final-demand injections on existing sectors invalid. Instead of a costly full-scale rebalancing, we apply the modification-so-called hypothetical integration-into a SAM to assess a proposed expansion of social care sector within the Expanded Public Works Program in South Africa.

► We assess distributional impacts of social sector expansion in South Africa. ► We develop a simple method to modify a social accounting matrix. ► The new method reformulates the matrix without technical balancing. ► We find the reformulation to be a valid tool for an ex-ante policy analysis.