The purchasing power parity of Southeast Asian currencies: A time-varying coefficient approach

The economies of Southeast Asia have undergone several structural changes, including the Asian currency crisis, during the post-Bretton Woods era. We use a time-varying coefficient cointegration model to test for purchasing power parity (PPP) of Southeast Asian currencies and to track changes in purchasing power relationships over time. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, the stability of the relationship between exchange rates and price differentials is strongly rejected. Second, a major structural change occurs at the outbreak of the Asian currency crisis in 1997. Third, when the cointegration vector is allowed to vary with time, we find evidence of a cointegration relationship for four countries in terms of the US dollar and for four countries in terms of the Japanese yen. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Southeast Asian currencies form a “yen bloc.”