Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China

This paper provides a new approach to investigate monetary policy nonlinearities within a micro-founded DSGE model by incorporating a transition function into the traditional Taylor rule. The model is estimated using the Bayesian method for the Chinese economy over the period 1998-2013. The empirical results show that the central bank of China actually adopts a nonlinear Taylor rule and pursues an inflation target zone of [1%, 5%] rather than sticking to a rigid target. Further results from impulse responses and welfare comparisons suggest that economic stabilization is an important motive in the conduct of monetary policy in China and the adoption of a nonlinear rule seems to serve this goal better than the traditional linear rule.