Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe

This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-à-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.

► The predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia is investigated. ► Monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis are constructed. ► Money helps predict inflation in all countries, but does not in general improve inflation forecasts vis-à-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process or random walk.