Exploring heterogeneity in the impact of smoking bans among early and late adopters

•We estimate the effect of smoking bans on revenue for early and late adopters.•We exploit the staggered nature of bans with difference-in-differences.•We are the first study to use U.S. establishment level data.•We find similar adjustments between early and late adopters.•Overall smoking bans do not adversely affect sales.

This paper exploits variation in the timing of smoking bans in bars and restaurants, and examines whether sample selection drove the null results of earlier economic impact studies. An untested hypothesis posits that early adopters could better absorb the shock of bans, but among worse selected late adopters, bans would adversely impact bar and restaurant sales. We are the first U.S. study to use administrative tax records from roughly 28,000 establishments. We find similar adjustment trajectories between late and early adopters. Overall bans do not produce a significant adverse economic impact.