Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5058230 | Economics Letters | 2016 | 7 Pages |
â¢We consider confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend.â¢The confidence sets employ modified weighting schemes for the break magnitudes.â¢The new confidence sets have shorter length but retain accurate coverage.
Harvey and Leybourne (2015) construct confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend, based on inverting sequences of test statistics for a break at all possible dates. These are valid, in the sense of yielding correct asymptotic coverage, for I(0) or I(1) errors. In constructing the tests, location-dependent weights are chosen for values of the break magnitude parameter such that each test conveniently has the same limit null distribution. By not imposing such a scheme, we show that it is generally possible to significantly shorten the length of the confidence sets, whilst maintaining accurate coverage properties.