Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5058507 | Economics Letters | 2015 | 4 Pages |
Abstract
â¢Information on economic policy uncertainty matters in predicting oil price changes.â¢Nonlinearities are revealed in their relationship via a TVP-VAR approach.â¢We compare the forecastability of VAR models vs. benchmark AR & RW models.â¢The results indicate that TVP-VAR models outperform other alternatives.
Information on economic policy uncertainty does matter in predicting the change in oil prices. We compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian and time-varying VAR against univariate models. The time-varying VAR model outranks all alternative models over the period 2007:1-2014:2.
Related Topics
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Authors
Stelios Bekiros, Rangan Gupta, Alessia Paccagnini,