Exports, HIV incidence and the Baltic Dry Index: Further evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

•We estimate the effect that exports may have on HIV incidence for sub-Saharan African countries (SSAs).•Our work attempts to address the possible issues of reverse causality and measurement error.•To do so, we exploit the Baltic Dry Index to construct an instrument for SSAs' exports.•We find that a doubling of exports per capita could increase HIV incidence by about 55% on average.

We estimate the effect of exports on HIV incidence for sub-Saharan African countries, using an instrument related to the Baltic Dry Index. We find that a doubling of exports per capita could increase HIV incidence by about 55% on average.