Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
5060592 Economics Letters 2012 4 Pages PDF
Abstract
► Noncausal autoregressions (NCARs) describe well US inflation dynamics. ► NCARs tend to forecast inflation more accurately than causal autoregressions. ► NCARs tend to forecast inflation better than backward-looking Phillips curve models. ► With NCAR as the benchmark, little change in inflation forecast accuracy is found.
Keywords
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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Has US inflation really become harder to forecast?
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