The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations

We evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations and find that they are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Concerning out-of-sample forecast precision, survey participants generally perform worse than a constant forecast. Caution should accordingly be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

► Survey-based wage-growth expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. ► Survey participants generally perform worse than a constant forecast. ► Caution should be exercised when relying on these expectations for policymaking.