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Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
5062183 Economics Letters 2008 5 Pages PDF
Abstract

Ten of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.

Keywords
E44E52Discriminant analysisTerm structureMonetary policyLogitInterest rates
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
Preview
Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity
Authors
Tobias Adrian, Arturo Estrella,
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Journal
Economics Letters
Journal: Economics Letters
Related Categories
E44
E52
Discriminant analysis
Term structure
Monetary policy
Logit
Interest rates
Economics and Econometrics
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (General)
Finance
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