• Daneshyari
  • Topics
    • Physical Sciences and Engineering
      Life Sciences
      Health Sciences
      Social Sciences and Humanities
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics

Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
5062833 Economics Letters 2006 5 Pages PDF
Abstract
Prediction markets are futures markets in which prices are used to predict future events. I present the first formal analysis of price determination supposing traders have heterogeneous beliefs, deriving the equilibrium when traders are risk-neutral price takers.
Keywords
D84G10Subjective probabilitiesFutures marketsPrediction marketsBeliefsEfficient markets hypothesis
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
Preview
Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets
Authors
Charles F. Manski,
Related Articles
The inefficiency of Bitcoin revisited: A dynamic approach
Predictability dynamics of emerging sovereign CDS markets
Liquidity commonality in the secondary corporate loan market
Measuring labour differences between natives, non-natives, and natives with an ethnic-minority background
Examining differential treatment of single mothers and people with disabilities in the apartment rental market
Testing for the implicit weights of the dimensions of the Human Development Index using stochastic dominance
Improving access to preventive maternal health care using reminders: Experimental evidence from Guatemala
The correct regularity condition and interpretation of asymmetry in EGARCH
Pricing in the online invoice trading market: First empirical evidence
Sukuk, banking system, and financial markets: Rivals or complements?
Journal
Economics Letters
Journal: Economics Letters
Related Categories
D84
G10
Subjective probabilities
Futures markets
Prediction markets
Beliefs
Efficient markets hypothesis
Economics and Econometrics
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (General)
Finance
Related Journals
Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management
Economics of Education Review
International Review of Economics Education
Development Engineering
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Journal of Economic Psychology
China Economic Review
City, Culture and Society
Ecological Economics
Economic Analysis and Policy
Economic Modelling
Economic Systems
Economics & Human Biology
Economics of Transportation
Emerging Markets Review
Energy Economics
European Economic Review
European Journal of Political Economy
Daneshyari provides fulltext access to millions of research papers.