Warlords, famine and food aid: Who fights, who starves?

•We study how the potential for looting aid affects warlords' recruitment decisions.•Our model allows us to predict who will be recruited, who will receive aid, and who will die of famine in every circumstance.•Aid agencies' amount of resources is a key determinant.

We examine the effects of famine relief efforts (food aid) in regions undergoing civil war. In our model, warlords seize a fraction of all aid. They hire their troops within a population with varied productivities or skills. We determine the equilibrium distribution of labor in this environment and study how the existence and allocation strategies of a benevolent food aid agency affect this equilibrium. Our model allows us to predict who will be recruited, who will receive aid, and who will die of famine in every circumstance.