Are conservatives overconfident?

•Conservatives are more overconfident in election years after 1980.•Conservatives and Liberals are equally overconfident in non-election years.•Conservatives and Liberals are equally overconfident before 1980.•We propose a theory of correlational neglect with zeitgeists.•This theory rationalizes the facts above and several other findings

Recent studies suggest psychological differences between conservatives and liberals, including that conservatives are more overconfident. We use a behavioral political economy model to show that while this is undoubtedly true for election years in the current era, there is no reason to believe that conservative ideologies are intrinsically linked to overconfidence. Indeed, it appears that in 1980 and before, conservatives and liberals were equally overconfident.