Patronage and ideology in electoral behavior: Evidence from Egypt's first presidential elections

•We investigate the impact of Egypt's large bureaucracy on 2012 elections results.•We compare the effect of patronage to that of voter's ideological preferences.•Patronage effect is stronger than secularist ideology for the incumbent votes.•Patronage effect is weaker than pro-change for the incumbent votes.

This paper investigates the impact of patronage and ideology on voter behavior and election outcomes. Egypt's first free presidential elections represent a good case study to answer the question whether private gain outweighs ideology in voter behavior on a broader level. First, we combine election results with household surveys and national statistics to estimate the impact of patronage (measured by public employment) on voting for the pre-revolution regime candidate. Second, using results of the first round of elections as a proxy for ideology, we test for the effect of ideological preferences on voting behavior. Additionally, we test for candidates' ability to mobilize supporters. Our results suggest that patronage has a stronger effect than secularist ideology but a weaker effect than pro-change ideology. Results show that the number of public sector and government employees in each electoral district has a positive impact on participation rates.