Combating “maritime terrorism” off the coast of Somalia

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the international naval mission in the Gulf of Aden from 2008 to 2010, both in terms of its counter-piracy and its counter-terrorism objectives. We draw on arguments developed in the literature of terrorism and law and economics, detailed statistical analyses and a large number of in depth interviews. Counter-piracy operations are a qualified success: their main effects are the stabilisation of attacks at a high level and the substitution between the relatively well protected transit corridor in the Gulf of Aden and the open sea. However, the counter-piracy measures deterred pirates from forming alliances with Islamist movements and may therefore made a major contribution to international security.

Research highlights► Naval counter-piracy measures off the Horn of Africa have had limited success. ► Somali pirates are highly strategic in managing and mitigating risks. ► Pirates substitute between targets and attack locations to minimise risk of disruption. ► Pirates have resisted forming alliances with Islamists.