The determinants of local population growth: A study of Oxfordshire in the nineteenth century

This paper presents a new econometric model for analysing population growth at the village and town level. It develops and applies a theory of the equilibrium distribution of population over space. The theory emphasises geographical fundamentals, such as rivers as transport corridors, and soil types that govern agricultural specialisation; also institutional factors such as town government, market charters and the concentration of land ownership. Nineteenth century Oxfordshire is used as a case study, but the method can also be applied at a multi-county and national level. The results show that the development of railways in nineteenth-century Oxfordshire accelerated a long-term shake-out in the market system, whereby rural markets disappeared and urban markets grew. This shake-out had significant implications for population growth at the local level.

► Introduces a new econometric model for analysing population growth at the parish level ► Develops a multi-level empirical research methodology ► Analyses the interaction of geographical and institutional factors on population ► Tests the hypothesis that lower transport costs lead to 'market shake-out' ► Compares the impacts of trunk and local railway lines on local population growth